Is Taiwan Safe to Travel?

Geopolitical risk assessment based on official government advisories and expert analysis

Last Updated: December 31, 2025

The Short Answer

YES — Taiwan is currently safe to visit for short-term travel

All major Western governments maintain their lowest-level travel advisories for Taiwan. No country has issued geopolitical warnings in their travel advice. Day-to-day, Taiwan remains one of the safest destinations in Asia with extremely low crime.

However, be aware:
  • Geopolitical tensions are elevated following China's Dec 2025 military drills
  • Military exercises can cause flight delays/cancellations (100K+ affected Dec 29-30)
  • Situation could change — register with your embassy and monitor news
  • Get travel insurance with evacuation coverage

Current Travel Advisory Levels

What governments are actually telling their citizens right now

🇺🇸

United States

Level 1: Normal Precautions

Lowest advisory level

🇬🇧

United Kingdom

Standard Advice

No elevated warnings

🇦🇺

Australia

Normal Precautions

Lowest advisory level

🇨🇦

Canada

Normal Precautions

Lowest advisory level

Key point: Despite heightened geopolitical rhetoric, no government has raised travel warnings or added military/conflict warnings to Taiwan advisories. All focus on natural disasters (earthquakes, typhoons).

Recent Development: December 29-30, 2025

China conducted "Justice Mission 2025" military drills — the largest exercises around Taiwan in 8 months — in response to a record $11.1 billion US arms sale. Over 100,000 air travelers were affected by flight disruptions.

90+
Aircraft crossed median line
71
Military aircraft deployed
27
Rockets fired
2 days
Duration of drills

What You Should Do

Before You Go

  • Register with STEP (US), FCDO (UK), or equivalent
  • Get travel insurance with evacuation coverage
  • Complete Taiwan Arrival Card online (within 3 days of arrival)
  • Check your embassy's Taiwan page for updates
  • Save embassy contact info on your phone

While There

  • Monitor news for military exercise announcements
  • Allow extra time for flights during tense periods
  • Keep passport and documents accessible
  • Know alternative routes home if flights disrupted
  • Follow any embassy alerts immediately

Emergency Contacts

  • Police: 110
  • Fire/Ambulance: 119
  • Tourist Hotline: 0800-011-765
  • US AIT: +886-2-2162-2000
  • UK Office: +886-2-8758-2088

Important Disclaimer

This page aggregates publicly available information for informational purposes only. Geopolitical situations can change rapidly. Always check official government travel advisories before making travel decisions. This is not travel advice.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment by Country

How governments and experts assess the broader strategic situation

🇺🇸

United States

Strategic ambiguity with enhanced deterrence
HIGH CONCERN

Pentagon Assessment (Dec 2025)

  • China on track for invasion capability by 2027
  • PLA tested "essential components" of invasion scenarios
  • US "increasingly vulnerable" due to China's buildup
"A Chinese military attack against Taiwan could be imminent."
— Secretary of Defense, May 2025

Key Actions

  • Approved record $11.1B arms sale (Dec 2025)
  • 2025 NSS omitted "One China" language
US State Department Advisory →
CRITICAL CONCERN

Historic Shift (Nov 2025)

  • PM: Taiwan situation could "threaten Japan's survival"
  • Triggers collective self-defense legislation
  • Most significant declaration since WWII

Why It Matters to Japan

  • Yonaguni Island only ~110km from Taiwan
  • 90% of oil imports pass near Taiwan Strait
  • $300B+ trade with China at risk
Asia Times Analysis →
🇬🇧

United Kingdom

Opposes unilateral status quo changes
ELEVATED CONCERN

Official Position (Dec 2025)

  • Exercises "increase tensions and risk of escalation"
  • Taiwan Strait "critical to UK economy"
  • Calls for resolution "without force"

Strategic Defence Review

  • Taiwan Strait: "place of strategic value"
  • China: "systematic challenge" to UK
  • Enhanced Indo-Pacific via AUKUS
UK FCDO Advice →
🇦🇺

Australia

Deep concern, alliance commitments
HIGH CONCERN

Government Position

  • "Deep concerns" about Dec 2025 drills
  • Exercises "destabilising" and risky
  • Opposes unilateral status quo changes
"If China takes Taiwan by force... likely to lead to a wide-ranging Indo-Pacific conflict."
— ASPI Strategist
Australian Smartraveller →
🇪🇺

European Union

Status quo preservation
ELEVATED CONCERN

EEAS Statement (Dec 2025)

  • "Increases tensions and endangers peace"
  • EU has "direct interest" in status quo
  • Calls for restraint from all parties

Economic Stakes

  • $2.45T goods through strait annually
  • Taiwan: 92% of advanced chips
  • European industries highly dependent
EU External Action →
🔬

Expert Consensus

Think tanks and analysts
TIMELINE DEPENDENT

Key Assessments

  • CFR: "Most dangerous flashpoint in the world"
  • CSIS: Gray zone more likely than invasion
  • Stimson: Invasion faces "immense barriers"
  • Brookings: 91% of Chinese see Taiwanese as "friends"
"No other plausible source of great power war manifests the same combination of risk factors."
— Council on Foreign Relations
CFR Analysis →

Invasion Probability Estimates

Expert assessments vary significantly — no consensus exists

Defense Priorities Survey
85%
of experts say invasion "unlikely" in next 5 years
Global Guardian
~35%
likelihood of all-out invasion overall
Metaculus
0.3%
probability for 2026; 10% by 2028
CFR
50%
chance of a crisis (not invasion) in 2026

Risk Timeline

2025-2026
Short-Term

Invasion unlikely. Primary concerns: gray zone activities, exercises, miscalculation.

2027
Critical Year

Xi's directive for PLA invasion capability. Pentagon: "China expects to fight and win by end of 2027."

2027-2035
Elevated Risk

Risk "very likely to continue increasing" as PLA capabilities mature.

2049
Symbolic

100th anniversary of PRC. Xi has linked "reunification" to national goals.

Sources

Government Sources

Think Tanks

News & Analysis

Defense & Intelligence